They’re at it again. At what? Guessing how many of whatever gadgets various companies manufactured, shipped, or sold. They are not the same. The reason I bring this up has to do with two of the technology industry’s largest guesstimators– IDC and Gartner– and their most recent numbers.
Here’s the perfect example.
Back in July, Apple announced quarterly results and said 41.3-million iPhones were sold during the previous quarter. Is that exact? No, of course not. It could just as easily stated 41,317,592 iPhones were sold, but lets’ assume the number was accurate, OK?
What was Gartner’s guesstimate?
44.7151-million. Remember, that’s a guesstimate; an estimate. That number was posted after Apple announced the official 41.3-million number. The same as IDC’s number.
Gartner guessed wrong? No, the official number from Apple was the name number that IDC used.
Like, duh already.
The difference has to do with what is called Sell-Out and Sell-In. Gartner estimates devices sold to customers, while Apple reports actual sales to the distribution channel (stores; online, etc.).
But only one is accurate. It’s a real number based on real sales. Gartner’s remains an estimate.
Other such estimates include the infamous marketshare numbers. Depending on which guesstimate you believe, Apple’s iPhone marketshare is around 15-percent of the smartphone market, while Android devices get the remainder.
Guesses. Guesstimates. Estimates. Numbers, yes. Math, no.
Google claims over 2-billion Android devices are active and online. Apple claims about 1-billion iPhone (iOS) customers. That’s not 15-percent. That’s not even 25-percent. Let’s round it off to about 35-percent for Apple and 65-percent for Android.
Those are rounded off numbers but they’re not guesstimates in the sense of marketshare or Gartner’s own made up numbers. They are reflections of actual numbers and they are not reflective the standard pablum served up by guesstimators and regurgitated by technology and news websites.
Haters gonna hate. Guesstimators gonna guess. Ignore them all.